Five Races To Go…

So the three week break was pretty painful, with no race since that win by Jenson Button in Hungary. But wheels will soon turn again as the Formula One circus heads to Turkey for the second time.

Currently, Fernando Alonso leads the Drivers Championship with 100 points. Trailing him – but only by 10 points – is Michael Schumacher with 90. With five races to go and 50 points up for grabs, has Alonso done enough to keep his crown for another year?

If Schumacher won all remaining five races, but Alonso finished second in each, then Schumacher would tie for points with Alonso on 140, but win the title for having most wins. However, the chances are very slim, and I cannot see Alonso not winning at least one more race before the season is closed. I think it’s going to be another close one…

Also, in third place with 52 points is Ferrari number two – Felipe Massa. Right behind him are Giancarlo Fisichella and Kimi Raikkonen with 49 points each. It is now impossible (in terms of points gained) for either Giancarlo or Kimi to win the title as the most they could take is 99 points for the season. However, although extremely unlikely, if Felipe Massa won all five remaining races and Alonso and Schumacher failed to finish (given one 8th place) then he could mathematically take the 2006 title. Of course, that just isn’t going to happen. But can Fisichella keep his Renault ahead of the improving Massa to take the third spot? Honestly, I think it is 50/50.

The Constructor’s Title is also taking shape. Whilst Renault and Ferrari are only 7 points apart, McLaren are pretty safe with 85, Honda with 52, Toyota tied with BMW on 26, and Red Bull 6 points ahead of Williams on 16. This title could go either way again, but the Toyota and BMW battle is interesting. It was recently given a lift when Heidfeld finished third in Hungary, but it wasn’t entirely a flash-in-the-pan performance. BMW have been making strides recently, and Kubica set the track alight in his debut race. Toyota are a big company with a lot of money, but then, BMW aren’t no little-league team either. If BMW manage to beat Toyota this year, I think the Japanese team will have to take a long hard look at how they have been running a Formula One team. And then take a long hard look at how everyone else has been running a Formula One team!

Does anyone want to revise their pre-season prediction?